Journal of Airline Operations and Aviation Management

Air transport in Poland in 2009-2019 was characterized by dynamic and stable growth in passenger numbers and passenger operations. The COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in 2020, led to unprecedented disruptions in the sector's operations and interrupted its previous growth path. As a result, there was a need to assess the extent to which actual passenger flows in 2020-2024 deviated from the level that could have been achieved in the absence of the pandemic. The aim of the study was to assess the level of passenger flows in air transport in Poland in 2020-2024 by comparing actual values with forecasts based on data from 2009-2019. Two variables were analyzed: the number of passengers and the number of passenger operations. Based on historical data, exponential trend models were estimated, which were then used to make forecasts for 2020-2024, assuming no pandemic. The fit of the models was also assessed and forecast errors were determined. The analysis revealed significant discrepancies between the forecast and actual values for 2020-2021, confirming the strong and sudden impact of the pandemic on the aviation sector. In subsequent years, a gradual market recovery was observed, but by 2024, the levels resulting from the pre-pandemic trend had not been fully achieved. At the same time, high determination coefficients and low forecast errors indicate the correctness of the models used and their usefulness in assessing the scale of deviations from the nonpandemic scenario. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a permanent disruption to the previous growth trajectory of air transport in Poland, and that the process of returning to the long-term trend is gradual and incomplete within the analyzed time horizon.